While it is understandable that the landscape of online content is clearly skewed towards the promotion of shock-content or wild assertions in an effort to capture audience, John Hollinger goes just a bit further than the rest of us.  Hollinger, who first made a name for himself by inventing the largely unreliable PER rating system (a system that laughably lays claim to the “fact” that a guy like Kevin Martin is a more efficient ball player than Kobe Bryant and Steve Nash) is now making a name for himself with his “scientific” power rankings, rankings that as of yesterday had the Los Angeles Lakers as the 11th best team in the league, behind not one, two or three, but FIVE teams the Lakers have defeated already this season.

Being a sabermetrician at heart myself, I have tried to understand Hollinger’s futile attempts at doing to Basketball what Bill James and Paul Depodesta/Billy Bean successfully did to baseball. No matter how hard I try, however, each time I try to dig into Hollinger’s “science” I get about 20% of the way through the equation before getting lost in my own personal list of arguments against his formula.  Rather than waste my time trying to lay the arguments out here, let me just save you all some time, he is flat out wrong……and an ass who will forever be labeled on this website as a douche-tool.

• Gasol to be out until Christmas?  Just kidding…ha ha…maybe (Link).
• Bosh, Wade and Lebron on the same team in 2010?  Don’t count on it thanks to our failing economy (Link). Plus, Kobe tells Lebron to stop talking Free Agency (Link).
• Speculation that its not Stephen Jackson that is going to be out of Golden State soon but rather Don Nelson (Link).  Are Clippers interested in Jackson? (Link).
• Mike Dunleavy as good as gone? (Link).

MLB:

• Returning Home? Dodgers may move Sherrill for Edwin Jackson (Link).
• Wolf could be back in Blue (Link).
• Dodgers after Vazquez? Noooooot (Link).
• MLB.com confirms that Red Sox meeting with Lackey (Link).
• Orlando Hudson to New York? (Link).

Sometimes there are games that, when teams look at their schedule at the beginning of the year, they know they are likely to lose.  The Suns played one of those games and got clobbered by the Lakers and then the next night the Lakers got a taste of that schedule medicine, getting clobbered by the Nuggets.  Don’t worry LA/Phoenix fans……you are both at 7-2 and the tough schedule now will make you tougher come playoff time.

One thing that is obvious from the early going, Kobe appears to have redefined his game with the addition of an array of low post moves that have seemed unstoppable thus far this season. Kobe’s low post game is going to cause teams defending him to use taller and thicker bodies, as Kobe has thus far shown the propensity to abuse guys like OJ Mayo and Devin Brown in the post. As teams adjust to Kobe, it is a bit scary to know that all Kobe has to do to adjust to their adjustments is to go back to playing his regular game, that of a perimeter scorer who is a deadeye shooter yet can take anyone overplaying him off the dribble in embarrassing fashion.

I hate to yet again start making comparisons between Kobe and the Great MJ, but it is a bit obvious how similar Kobe’s career progression has been to that of MJ. MJ’s low post game and thickness were large late stage career additions to his game that the Chicago Bulls ended up riding to the back-end three-peat of their six championships in the 1990s. With a league that is arguably deeper in individual talent (Lebron, Wade, Paul, Howard…) and team expectations (Magic, Cavs, Celtics, Spurs…) than any other time in its history, it will be fun to watch and see if Kobe can truly elevate his game and his legacy amongst what appear to be insurmountable odds. Only time will tell, but so far this season Kobe is showing that the league may have prematurely appointed its current King.

The Lakers hope to get Pau Gasol back for their next game this Sunday, which would be his season debut after missing the first six games of the 2009 regular season with a lingering hamstring injury.  Bynum is less certain, though the strained elbow he injured at the end of the team’s last gane against Houston appears to be improving.

Apparently there was a good detailed discussion last night on TNT’s “Inside the NBA” program about the problems with the current makeup of the Cleveland Cavaliers. While I did not catch the discussion on the Cavs that the TNT guys (who are very entertaining by the way) had last night, I have my own opinions on the topic. Personally, the more I watch the Cavs play the more I think that part of Cleveland’s problem is that Lebron overdoes trying to get his teammates involved (not bashing him, just my observation). I mean, he is the superstar so needs to want to take shots on every play. If his teammates are not good enough for the Cavs to win when Lebron is looking for them, then he should go down swinging and control the ball (and the shots) more to try and make his teammates work harder to gain a right to his passes. Don’t get me wrong, Lebron is unselfish and a great passer and I already know that the Kobe-Haters think that LBJ is simply taking what the defense is giving him and not forcing up shots like Kobe “does.” I can see how a player that lets the game come to him can be considered as unselfish and having great qualities, but to me, superstars are supposed to force the defense and take control. Every team defense is going to be built to guard the superstar player (like Lebron) to prevent him from scoring, so in a way, Lebron is playing into the design of the defense by giving up the ball as much as he does (i.e. the defensive plan is to get the ball OUT of Lebron’s hands, so he is merely helping them do so). Some objective evidence to back up my position, if you look at the number of shots on a per season basis, Lebron is pretty far below what guys like MJ and Kobe have done. I definitely see how it can be interpreted as a solid quality that Lebron is so efficient and scores a lot on fewer shots, but I think Cleveland does not win (ever) unless he demands more shots and stops deferring to his much weaker teammates. Efficiency is great, but efficiency also means you are not forcing the issue, and sometimes forcing the issue has subjective effects on teammates and defenses that cause the overall benefit to the team from those forced shots to outweigh what would result from an “efficient” performance.

To put it into perspective, even in a championship season where most anti-lakers would admit Kobe had a great year (2009), Kobe took more shots in a season (while on a superior team) than Lebron ever has in his entire career (save one season). Winners want the ball and make things happen. Lebron needs to get that competitive “screw the world, I am the best” fire or he is going to struggle to win championships. He is a superior talent, but he needs to start making the other teams stop him instead of doing them a favor and stopping himself to give an open look to a weaker teammate.

My point with Kobe has long been (as much ridiculed as it has been by the haters) that a forced Kobe shot is usually better than a fundamentally sound look from a weaker teammate. Now that Kobe has better teammates that are gaining his confidence, he rightfully defers to them. Lebron does not have that luxury yet.

Likeability does not Equal Leadership

Dare I say that Kobe has done a better job motivating his teammates than he is given credit for? Yes, I dare. Ron Ron Artest recently twittered that he was working out many hours a day during the month leading up to the preseason because he didn’t want to come to camp and “have the Mamba mad at him” off the bat. When asking “who is the better leader, Kobe or Lebron,” commentators constantly talk about leadership by discussing a player’s likability by one’s teammates (which none of us will argue bodes well for Kone in a battle versus the ever so popular Lebron James). But as exists in the business world, likeability is not really a positive quality for a leader. A leader needs to not be hated, but also needs to not be so likeable that he cannot be direct with his subjects. Perhaps sports is different, but if you see Kobe as a manager of his other teammates, then lack of likeability is not something to knock him for. The managers in the business world who hang out and drink with the employees usually do not last very long (and certainly are not effective). Managers who show up early and leave late and produce are the ones who succeed. Kobe appears to be the better “manager” and to me is the better leader.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=sz0gHf9Iuww

I’m showing you this for a couple reasons. One, poor kid. Two, it’s a lead-in to the point I want to make. Assume first the player who heaved the ball in the video was fouled. If his full court three-point hail mary were answered, he’d receive one foul shot for a possible four point play. Let’s call this the “and one” scenario. If he missed, he would have three foul shots . Taking the latter, assume further that he was fouled again after the first foul but before he actually shot the ball. How many foul shots does he get? Again, three. The second foul is not taken into account. How many should he get? I think four.

It’s difficult to see the logic in this context since we have a full court heave, so let’s consider a more typical example. Oftentimes a player driving to the hoop is fouled just as he picks up his dribble, glides in temporarily unmolested for a layup, but gets fouled again, thereby preventing the bucket. Under the current rules, he’d only get two fouls shots, yet in the “and one” scenario, he’d have a chance for three points. In other words, defending players have free license (in fact they have an incentive) to foul again without punishment to prevent the “and one” scenario.

So here’s my proposition. If a player is fouled after an initial shooting foul, he should receive the number of foul shots equal to the total possible points in an “and one” scenario. In other words, three foul shots for a two point shot, and four foul shots for a three point shot. Not only do I think that’s more fair, but it would also protect players who might otherwise be defenseless after the initial foul (though it wouldn’t have protected the poor kid in the video).

What do you think?

There have been many great NBA 1st round play-off series in history, but arguably never one that grabbed the attention of the nation like this one has. Even Bulls or Celtics haters are tuned into this one and no fan can deny the greatness of this classic series. But is it the best NBA Playoff 1st round series ever?